Blogito, Ergo Sum
by Gregg Calkins
16 January
2008, a Wednesday
What did I learn from the Michigan race? Democrats think more of Kucinich than they do of Christopher Dodd (!) and Hillary, running almost unopposed, barely breaks 55%.
Republicans like Ron Paul better than Fred or Rudy, and Huckabee was a distant third. Was it surprising that Romney won what is almost a favorite-son state? I don't think it's sour grapes to say that. Probably. If he really got elected because of his pledge to renew the auto industry, though, those people are dreaming. The auto market future is in China and India, and they're building $2500 cars. What would a U.S. auto worker have to be paid in order for that to be accomplished in Detroit? No wonder Michigan has been a one-state recession, they're not very smart up there.
There's not much else to learn in the NYT today, except maybe this, from an item warning that the rest of the world is going to pass the U.S. in science pretty soon:
Many Americans remain ignorant about much of science, the board said. Many are unable to answer correctly when asked whether Earth moves around the Sun (it does).
This is probably under the category of rocket science, but I thought it was interesting that the NYT author felt it necessary to inform his presumably adult readers of the correct answer. Do I laugh, or cry?
The Washington Post reports on Michigan:
Presidential hopeful proclaims a "victory of optimism over Washington-style pessimism."
Romney promises to fix things when he gets to...Washington. Why is it I think he should have run for governor of Michigan, instead? I don't know why, but I keep hearing the words of the Great White Father...don't worry, I'm going to fix everything for you. Poor old McCain, he should know that ordinary fathers who tell their sons they are going to have to learn how to do things for themselves have a tougher sell.
By the time Michigan finally learns that those jobs really aren't coming back, it will be too late. Not that Romney can get elected president, anyhow, running against the first black president and the first woman president while trying to be the first Mormon president, not that we want to mention race, gender or religion in this electoral competition.
Michael Gerson, writing about global prosperity:
To meet increasing demand for electricity, China is building about one coal-fired plant a week. It is also earning a number of environmental distinctions: the world's largest producer of carbon dioxide; the largest polluter of the Pacific Ocean; the largest importer of illegally logged timber. According to the Environmental Protection Agency, on some days, 25 percent of the particulates in the air over Los Angeles have come from China.
Particulates are the parts you can see, actual pollution, whereas carbon dioxide is not actually either one of those things...but the point is that one nation, such as the United States, reducing--not eliminating--carbon dioxide emissions won't have a lot of effect upon global carbon dioxide. You'd better hope I'm right about carbon dioxide not causing global warming.
Well, no...having said that I realize that you'd better hope that I'm wrong, because I think the sun is the central player in our little universe when it comes to warming. And in my book, there are only two basic questions to think about: (1) is global warming really "bad"?; and (2) what happens when global cooling returns? Europe's "little ice age" was pretty damn hard on people, and the Greenland farmers (they don't call it Whiteland for some reason) went out of business along with civilization on Greenland. Krakatoa alone produced a year without a summer and people suffered as a result.
Let me tell you, folks, you are definitely NOT going to like global cooling! And if I'm right and the sun really is the prime mover, the problem is that what we know about solar cycles seems to say stand by for cooling, not warming.
Down here in the tropics we know about a hot sun. The name 'parasol' suddenly translates differently than it ever did to me in the north, where I used it for rain...a 'parapluie' even if I thought of it as an umbrella. We know the value of shade and air movement and the cooling effect of water, all easily-available natural methods for protecting against too much heat. There aren't a very large number of people die from too much heat.
But if the sun doesn't put out enough heat, then what? The answers are nowhere near as easily had. True, you will learn not to feel guilty about burning fossil fuels which emit carbon dioxide, but you're already finding those fossil fuels scarcer and more expensive...what if you start needing more and more of them just to stay warm? Quite a few people die from the cold each year, even in affluent America.
What's in a name? Consider this excerpt from Victor Davis Hanson:
The same problems of consistency and authenticity arise these days with
racial identity and all that comes with it. Bill Richardson — son of a banker,
prep-school graduate, toiler in the vineyard of Kissinger Associates — assured
us that he would be the first Hispanic president, due to his mother’s lineage.
But why was that information necessary, and to what purpose was that appeal?
His background seems a world away from the contemporary Mexican-American
experience. And in our current fantasy world of racial identity politics, he
was hoisted on his own petard by unfortunately having his father’s English
aristocratic name, William Blaine Richardson III. Had he taken on his mother’s
maiden name (with accent), and as others have done, Hispanicized his first
name, he might have had more media resonance — as, say, one Guillermo Márquez.
Ditto Sen. Barack Obama. It is an inexplicably surviving legacy of the racist
antebellum South that a drop of African blood apparently cements a black
identity. Senator Obama is forced to be seen — or wishes to be seen — not as
white or even half-white, but as a de facto African-American and thus
emblematic of all the historical ordeal that such an identity might encompass.
But by the logic of his own memoirs, it was his upbringing by his Kansas-born
white mother and his long residence with his maternal grandparents that shaped
his values and aspirations. His Kenyan father was almost always absent.
Had he been named not after his father, but, say, in honor of both his
often-present mother and his omnipresent grandfather, Stanley Dunham, we might
well have had a superficially different conception of him. A Sen. Stan Dunham
would require some of the footnotes that Gov. Bill Richardson had to provide.
Senator Stan Dunham and Guillermo Márquez would have seemed like two very different people, wouldn't they.
Here's an interesting Iraq item, culled from the Weekly Standard:
January 2007
Congressional Armed Services Committees: 7 hearings
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: 12 hearings
January 2008
Congressional Armed Services Committees: none scheduled
Senate Foreign Relations Committee: none scheduled
Looks like interest is down a bit.
Here's something I'll wager you never knew about military body armor:
...the vests have pockets into which are inserted ceramic "small arms protective inserts" (SAPIs).
A SAPI is nothing more than an over-engineered dinner plate made from a high-tech ceramic (silicon carbide or boron carbide) backed by several layers of compressed Spectra or Dyneema fabric (which is polyethelene, and looks like plastic). When a bullet passes through the OTV and hits the plate, the force of impact shatters the plate and absorbs the energy of the bullet; the bullet and any residue of the plate is stopped in the backing material. Because the breaking of the plate destroys its structural integrity, the ability of the SAPI to stop a second hit is considerably less than for the first hit, the third hit is less than for the second hit, etc. The current standard in the U.S. military, applied to the Enhanced SAPI (E-SAPI) is two rounds required, three rounds desired. This is not a tactical requirement, it is one based on what industry could deliver.
Optimally, an insert should be able to absorb seven or eight rounds without losing its integrity--but that is not possible with existing plate technology. It should also be mentioned that the plates are really quite fragile, and prone to breaking in the course of ordinary handling. Microscopic cracks detectable only with X-ray or acoustic inspection degrade the performance of the plates and render them questionable at best. The U.S. has to replace about 2/3 of its plate inventory every year because of breakage, and the Israel Defense Force found 30 percent of its SAPIs to be damaged even when sitting in storage and never issued to the field.
Sounds like one of the poorest solutions I can imagine!
The Army is aware of the problem and is now polling industry to set new requirements for weight, flexibility and multi-hit capability. In the long term, the Army is pursuing the idea of "liquid armor"--a magnetio-ferrous substance that is normally liquid (and thus flows freely within the body armor vest) but which becomes rigid when subjected to the force of a bullet impact. The concept has been demonstrated in the lab, but is still about a decade from full-scale testing and evaluation.
In a way similar to "silly putty", which can be stretched and molded, but if you roll it into a ball you can bounce it on the floor without deforming it.
There are alternative technologies available now, which promise to deliver better performance, flexibility, and reduced weight. Many of these are based on the use of ceramic cylinders embedded in polymer resin over a SpectraShield backer. In contrast to plates, each cylinder is mechanically discrete, so a hit that destroys one in the process of stopping the bullet doesn't affect its neighbors. I have personally tested such an insert, putting ten high-power, armor-piercing rounds into it without any loss of integrity or debonding. Because the cylinders are crush-resistant, they are extremely rugged, and can be dropped, or even pounded with a hammer or an axe (something else I have done) without any breakage. Finally, because the resin in which the cylinders are embedded can be flexible, the entire plate can bend with the movements of the user, making the entire ensemble more comfortable.
Unfortunately, the military seems wedded to the existing SAPI technology, and breaking into the market is extremely difficult, since one goes up against both the existing suppliers and the military R&D establishment.
Here's another article to make you wonder about defense spending:
We've had a lot of coverage here of the problems with the Air Force's F-15 fleet, which has left has many as 40 percent of the service's front line fighters permanently grounded. In light of these problems, the Air Force is pushing for more funding for F-22, a program which is nearing the end of its production and will be shut down unless new orders are placed. The Fort-Worth Star-Telegram reports:
Maj. Gen. Jeff Riemer, program executive officer for the F-22 who also participated in the interview, said the Air Force has several cost scenarios for extending Raptor production.
The current production rate of 20 a year means that building 198 more aircraft would cost about $40 billion and keep the production line open until 2019. But boosting production to 32 annually, he said, would be more efficient, reducing the cost to about $35 billion, and production would last until 2016.
I'm not particularly good at math, but I believe that works out to roughly $200 million per aircraft at 20 a year and roughly $180 million per aircraft at 40 a year. Which is a lot more money than the Air Force was talking about prior to the problems with F-15. In an article for Air Force Print News last year, Maj. Gen. Richard B.H. Lewis, Air Force executive officer for the F-22 program, offered a much lower figure:
But the reality is, if the Air Force wanted to buy just one more jet, it would cost the taxpayer less than half that amount. The current cost for a single copy of an F-22 stands at about $137 million. And that number has dropped by 23 percent since Lot 3 procurement, General Lewis said.
"The cost of the airplane is going down," he said. "And the next 100 aircraft, if I am allowed to buy another 100 aircraft ... the average fly-away cost would be $116 million per airplane."
How did the cost go up $80 million per aircraft--50 percent--in just one year? I've been as big a proponent of extending F-22 as anyone, but at $200 million each, the F-22 would have to have more value to the Air Force than roughly 3.3 Joint Strike Fighters. Does anyone think the F-22 is worth that much?
The guy saying $116 million per was probably telling the truth. The others were looking for a way to pad the budget. Does anyone think the F-22 is worth 3.3 JSFs at $200 million? I'm having a hard time following this argument, but does that mean the JSF costs only $61 million? Is the $116 million F-22 worth nearly 2 JSFs? Would it defeat two of them if they met in combat?