Blogito, Ergo Sum
by Gregg Calkins
6 March 2008, a Thursday
The maneuvers are just getting started:
In a sign of difficult times ahead, there was more pressure on the Democratic Party to devise a way to seat delegations from Michigan and Florida. The governors of both states — Charlie Crist of Florida, a Republican, and Jennifer M. Granholm of Michigan, a Democrat, issued an unusual joint statement urging the Democratic National Committee to find a solution for seating the delegations.
“It is intolerable that the national political parties have denied the citizens of Michigan and Florida their votes and voices at their respective national conventions,” Mr. Crist and Ms. Granholm said.
John McCain said he strongly approved of their argument. How can they claim to be democratic if they don't allow everyone the right to vote? I'm all for Hillary winning this one.
Howard Dean, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, responded by suggesting that the party was open to a solution that would seat the states’ delegations provided they agreed to “follow the rules.”
Not the old rules that they didn't follow already, you understand, but the new ones.
Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, who left the Democratic presidential race after losing in Iowa, said he was not worried about the consequences of the primary fight.
“I think people are getting a little too excited about it,” Mr. Biden said, suggesting that the emphasis on the Democratic contest may make it hard for Mr. McCain to be heard in the coming weeks. “I think the party is absolutely, positively united in its desire to win the White House. I don’t think there will be any problem getting back together.”
Mr. Biden, who is of the paleface tribe, seemingly forgets what happened in the case of Algore when he was perceived to have won the popular vote but been canoodled out of the presidency by means of political stratagem. Algore supporters have never forgiven the man who did that to them, and Obama supporters aren't ever going to forgive Hillary, either. Which, of course, is why I'm rooting for her.
The New York Times has her only 86.5 delegates behind at this moment, hardly an overwhelming lead for Obama in the first place. And if I was a superdelegate, I'd find his insistence that my job was to follow the leaders and vote the way that they did to be rather demeaning and even insulting. What, the regular delegates are binding upon me? What does "super" mean, then?
Also, just the fact that none of the campaigns or the news agencies or anyone else can agree on what the current count actually is, well, that should give you pause right there. If they can't even for sure count the votes already in, who is to say who's ahead in a race this close?
It doesn't matter, in the end. Obama's only chance was to get Hillary to drop out voluntarily. She teased him (via Billy) that she might, but then did her Lucy act and yanked the football away each time. Now Obama says he plans to play a little rougher, himself:
His campaign aides on Wednesday urged Mrs. Clinton to release her tax returns from 2006, as well as her papers from her years as first lady, which Mr. Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod, described as “secreted in the Clinton library.”
“She’s made the argument that she’s thoroughly vetted, in contrast to me,” Mr. Obama said to reporters aboard his campaign plane. “I think it’s important to examine that argument.”
Over the last year, though, Mr. Obama has struggled to deliver that examination. He picks up the cudgel, and then sets it down. The problem is that Mr. Obama has built a campaign persona as the man of hope, a young candidate with oratorical skills who promises to build bridges across the ideological divide.
If he indulges his inner Chicago pol, formed in a city where politics is conducted with crowbars, he risks taking the shine off.
At least they are unaware of racial slang at the NYT.
Asked on the plane whether he and Mrs. Clinton might make a good ticket, he smiled. “It’s very premature,” he said, “to start talking about a joint ticket.”
Translation: the time is still ahead, awaiting maturity.
Obama has to be the coach with the pep-talk, of necessity, but don't think that coach doesn't understand reality. Coming up are Pennsylvania with 188 and Indiana with 84 and Puerto Rico with 63, all looking good for Hillary, and suddenly his 86.5 lead doesn't look quite so commanding.
Interesting quote in Media Notes:
Obama's losses followed a week in which journalists -- some of whom may have been embarrassed by the "Saturday Night Live" skits portraying them as swooning over the Illinois senator -- gave him rough treatment for the first time in this campaign. Obama even grumbled to reporters: "This whole spin of how the press has just been so tough on them and not tough on us, I didn't expect that you guys would bite on that."
In other words, Obama did notice that they had been easier on him before. Oops.
And do you want to know why some states want to move their primaries forward?
"After 44 contests, 28 million votes, and at least $275 million spent, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination grinds on as an increasingly brutal struggle for the soul of a party riven along the lines of race, class, gender, and generations," says the Boston Globe.
That's right. The people who are complaining that they are tired, and bored, and wish the campaign was over already are telling those still left to vote that we really don't care, we're pooped.
Look, by comparison, at the amount of attention Michigan and Florida are getting now.
"Mr. Wolfson said the Clintons' tax returns since they left the White House would be available on or around April 15."
Uh...isn't that after Pennsylvania and Indiana?
Atlantic's Marc Ambinder cautions that "a Clinton 'recovery' and nomination is not impossible. It just isn't likely. In the gut of many Clinton advisers 48 hours from now may be the sense that the confetti is ephemeral."
Ambinder also votes for a dream ticket, with Obama on top:
"That's because the longer Hillary Clinton stays in this race, the more inevitable it is that she, by force of will, earns a spot on the ticket. Obama cannot ignore her demographic coalition, her breadth and depth of the support, the energy that she generates, just as Hillary surely cannot ignore -- would not ignore -- everything that Obama has come to stand for and has accomplished."
I don't think Hillary's ego, or her supporters, would allow for that to happen. However, Obama the young-and-inexperienced, could argue that the 8 years of seasoning will be good for him.
Can a HuffPoster ever be right?
HuffPost's Marc Cooper says Hillary can't win "democratically"--although the superdelegates are part of the party's process and everyone agreed to play by those rules. But Cooper says "the more steely-eyed amongst us . . . would do well to psychologically prepare for the nomination going, somehow or another, to Hillary Clinton. Which means, in turn, that Democrats ought to simultaneously prepare to be beaten by John McCain."
Apparently so.
Robert Novak says Obama suddenly displays weakness:
Clinton's transformation of the political climate with her decisive victory in Ohio and unexpected narrow win in Texas coincided with Obama facing adversity for the first time in his magical candidacy, and he did not handle it well.
By chance, this critical week for Obama began Monday with jury selection in the Chicago corruption trial of his former friend and fundraiser Tony Rezko. For the first time, the story of this political fixer's connections with the Democratic Party's golden boy spread beyond the Chicago media. In a contentious news conference, Obama was uncommunicative. He ended the session by walking out and announcing that eight questions were enough.
I'm more taken with his tough anti-NAFTA talk while one of his top advisors is going behind the scenes and reassuring Canada that he doesn't really mean it.
Off to the Middle East for a moment, while we ponder what Claude Salhani is smoking. Noting that Hamas keeps firing missiles indiscriminately into Israel ("regrettable", he says) and eventually Israel responds by trying to kill the people who shoot them, he ponders what might possibly stop this cycle of violence?
Syria, due to host an Arab League summit late this month, could make an unprecedented and historic overture to Israel by inviting its prime minister to participate in the meeting. Only Damascus is in a position to take such a bold step toward peace and publicly offer an olive branch to its longtime enemy.
If Damascus undertook such a move, it would have the support of Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states. Syria would also enjoy the backing of its powerful neighbor to the north, Turkey, and of course the European Union.
Oh, really? And how can you be so sure of this?
George Bush's administration would find itself embarrassed by having to applaud such an initiative, despite its reservations regarding the regime of President Bashar Assad.
And why would the Bush administration be embarrassed in such an event? Oh, excuse me, I misunderstood...this was a reflexive bash about a hypothetical event not based in reality.
For Israel, such an invitation would represent a real dilemma: go or not go?
Indeed, if such an offer were ever made, Mr. Olmert would find himself in quite a conundrum. He would never be forgiven for turning down such a historic offer, while accepting the invitation would require as much courage as it would have taken Damascus to make it.
Au contraire, Olmert would jump at the chance to prove, yet another time, that Israel is willing to negotiate and get along. Hamas, on the other hand, has said openly and forcefully that it NEVER will. This is not a secret, and does not appear to be merely an idle boast on their part.
This may sound like far-fetched, wishful thinking, but to break the unending cycle of violence and avoid having the Middle East descend into even deeper hostility, bold steps are needed. The question is: Will someone have the courage to take those very difficult and painful steps? Miracles have been known to happen.
The "cycle" of violence goes as follows: (1) Hamas fires rockets into Israel; (2) Israel tries to make them stop doing that; (3) repeat.
If step (1) stops, the cycle stops. Inviting Israel to a peace conference, no matter who sponsors it, will not change this fundamental premise. Israel can attend conferences with every enemy or former enemy in the Middle East until all are full up to the brim with sweet tea and sympathy. Israel can promise never again to enter Gaza. Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states could "support" like crazy, along with Turkey and the EU, and Bush could die of embarrassment, red-faced with humiliation, but not one damn bit of that would matter worth a hill of beans unless Hamas stopped firing rockets into Israel.
It baffles me why this is so difficult to understand. The far-fetched and wishful thinking would be for Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and most of the Gulf states, plus Turkey and the EU, to tell Hamas "NO MORE ROCKETS FIRED INDISCRIMINATELY INTO ISRAEL! PERIOD!"
I think Olmert could go along with that. Bush, embarrassed to tears, would turn to Condi and ask, sorrowfully, "no why didn't we think of that?"
Shawn Macomber rereports in American Spectator about the Heartland Institute's 2008 International Conference on Climate Change. It has some excellent links in it for you to follow to learn about the history of climate change, starting with this one: global cooling story Anyhow, the conference was composed mainly of skeptics about the current cause of global warming, and I thought this was particularly interesting:
Surrounded by more than 500 skeptics in a space where alarmist bogeymen such as outspoken former Margaret Thatcher advisor Lord Christopher Monckton, star of his own documentary response to what he dubs "Al Gore's sci-fi horror comedy movie" Apocalypse? No!, and Unstoppable Global Warming Every 1500 Years author S. Fred Singer were fairly gushed over, Bast's prediction was easy to believe. At the very least these were people unafraid of intellectual combat. The goodie bags at registration contained a copy of Gore's An Inconvenient Truth, for example, to allow attendees to familiarize themselves with the other side's arguments before viewing the accompanying DVD The Great Global Warming Swindle. Try to imagine Al Gore encouraging the same level of rigorous pro- and con- study at one of his lectures. It's unthinkable.
Indeed it is. The pro-global warmers want to cut off and stifle debate; hearing the other side is the last thing they want to do. It should be noted that Gore was asked to address this gathering, but declined.
Even if I knew nothing about global warming--and I know quite a lot, since my two degrees are in the earth sciences--I'd have to be suspicious of the side which avoided open debate, just on general principles.
And Gore brings us back to politics, with this man's desperate suggestion:
Forget the red phone for a national-security crisis. Where is the red phone for a political party trying to destroy itself?
And where is the party leader with the respect, stature, wisdom and influence to answer the crisis phone?
Former President Bill Clinton has a slight conflict of interest, not to mention that his wife's campaign now has him sequestered in a secure, undisclosed location until the election is over.
Virtually powerless Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is a screaming castrato still regarded suspiciously by the party establishment.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who won her post promising the end the war in Iraq? Still waiting for that to happen.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is in a political pickle. ...
That leaves Al Gore as the only person with the experience to answer the red phone and force a peaceful end to this civil war.
The inconvenient truth is that the red phone is now ringing and Al Gore hears it. The only question is whether he has the guts to pick it up.
Algore may be just smart enough not to want to humiliate himself when he calls them and they answer "Al who?"
I don't think Gore is stupid, even if he does seem to have a tin ear. He's making an incredible fortune out of his global cooling scam, but I think he also knows that gravy train hasn't that much longer to run as even the non-scientists start to figure out the simple stuff and ignore the complicated explanations.
Simply put, we have had ice ages with warm periods in between them over tens of millions of years. The earth has been warmer than it is now, and CO2 concentrations have been higher. Man did not even exist for all of these events. How simple can it get?
Even since man has been around, we had the Medieval Warm Period, with temperatures higher than today's, followed by the Little Ice Age, a time of incredible hardship for mankind. In no way could human production of CO2 possibly be involved in those. How simple can it get?
Why should Algore screw up his good deal by appearing on a national stage where someone might point out the inconvenient truth about the emperor's new clothes?
Ditto the phone calls. Algore likes to think of himself as the man who should have been president. Why call two people who very likely would call him a "loser" and a "has-been" and then ignore him completely?
This comment from Rich Lowry:
Was just talking to a Republican strategist who's worried about Hillary winning on "careful what you wish for" grounds. One of his points is that she will be a "different Hillary" than when she started this process, and a much tougher candidate. She will have mounted an extraordinary comeback, overcoming adversity and definitively establishing her political independence from Bill.
Do you remember all of the pundits who said that McCain wasn't conservative enough to carry the right-wing of the Republican party?
Okay, now imagine Hillary carrying the votes of all of the Obama supporters who figure she screwed their guy out of his well-deserved victory by means of underhanded politics.
See? Even more interesting, McCain can--and seems to be--fixing his problem and getting his side firmed up. Now try to imagine Hillary doing that without appearing to be condescending to the, uh, loser.
What do you know, here's somebody with NRO who thinks the same way I do:
If You Can't Do the Math Then Get Out of the Equation... [Lisa Schiffren]
as Hillary Duff sings...(sorry) I'm with Jim Robbins on this. No numerological nonsense is going to come between Hillary and her goal. Something might stop her — but it won't be mere shortage of a few delegates. And let's be clear — she does not care what the cost to the party in the medium term, if she provokes a rift by demanding that some votes be given more weight than other votes.
My only comment would be that the Democrat party deliberately designed the superdelegates so that their votes would be given more weight than other votes. That's why they are called SUPER-delegates. If they were required to vote the same was as the majority then they would be called ADD-ON-delegates.
They were intended to carry more weight than the other delegates, from the very beginning.
As the pig said, remember, all of us are equal but some are more equal than others.
And I did have to smile broadly on this one:
Another 3 A.M. Red Phone Twist [Lisa Schiffren]
Over at the Campaign Spot Jim Geraghty asks whether John McCain is too nice a guy to use Hillary's ad against Obama with one modification: After the voice-over that says "I'm Hillary Clinton and I approved this ad," he wants to add "And I'm John McCain, and I approved the ad too." Brilliant — if Obama is the candidate. But one of my readers had a great idea if Hillary is the candidate. Actually, she thinks a tougher Obama would use it now.... Same ad, but towards the end, when the phone is ringing, a momentary shot of both Bill and Hillary reaching to grab the phone. There are a lot of things the voice-over could say....but I would start with "when that phone rings.... don't you want the person you elected to answer it."
The one satire I saw on tv (I don't watch a lot of television) was the one where Hillary picks up the phone and the caller is asking for Bill. Of course he's not home, she explains in exasperation, it's three a.m. That was a laugh-out-loud moment.
Jay Nordlinger is good for a chuckle, too:
In the presidential elections of 2000 and 2004, we heard this from Democrats, constantly: You have to have worn the uniform, in order to qualify as president. Moreover, you have to have gone to war, in order to qualify as president.
Why did the Democrats say this? Because their nominees were Al Gore and John Kerry, both of whom had been to Vietnam, for some months. And the Republican nominee was George W. Bush, who had merely flown fighter jets in the Guard.
This did, however, cause a small problem because there were a lot of other Americans who thought their National Guard service was important and honorable, and somehow they had to avoid dissing them. The solution, courtesy of Rather, was to say that Bush didn't really attend all of his meetings. This meant other NG people could be okay, just not Bush.
We did not hear this line in 1992 or 1996. In those years, the Republican
nominees were the first Bush and Bob Dole (war heroes both). And the
Democratic nominee was Bill Clinton.
Do you remember the Democratic convention of 2004, in Boston? They practically
made it look like a military event, with generals and admirals onstage, and
everyone saluting. That’s how Kerry began his big speech: with a salute, and a
line about reporting for duty.
Okay, my question: Will we hear the same talk from Democrats in 2008? Will
they say that you have to have been to war, in order to qualify as president?
The Democratic nominee will be either Obama or Hillary; and the Republican
will be McCain.
No, he says, he doesn't think so. I have a hunch he's right. Even funnier, though, Hillary claims that her experience is based upon being the wife of a draft-dodger!