Blogito, Ergo Sum
by Gregg Calkins
25 March
2008, a Tuesday
Behind their hands and under the covers, Obama and Hillary are smiling happily this morning at this NYTimes headline:
Troop levels in Iraq would remain nearly the same through 2008 as at any time during five years of war, senior officials said.
Despite their campaign rhetoric, the two candidates really want to inherit a stable Iraq which they can then claim to have created by their mere election. They don't want chaos, because in reality they both know how difficult it would be to safely extricate troops under those conditions.
Here's an interesting admission by the NYTimes:
Obama’s Test: Can a Liberal Be a Unifier?
By ROBIN TONER
Barack Obama’s candidacy challenges the idea that a majority coalition must be carefully centrist, if not center-right.
They're actually not only recognizing Obama as a Liberal, but calling him one right out loud? And after he has work so hard to paint himself as a centrist?
What's this? Now I get to the Washington Post, which says:
Gen. Petraeus plans to tell Congress in April that the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq that began late last year will continue until the end of July.
Did the New York Times, like Hillary, misspeak?
Howard Kurtz in Media Notes gives me an idea:
The debate is not over where Clinton and Obama would lead the country. It's over the tactics they are using against each other, whether it's hopeless for Hillary and whether she should stay in the race.
This is what happens when you've got seven weeks between primaries and an increasingly bitter contest.
Why not have three primaries a week for 17 weeks, say March through June for decent weather, and determine the order of the states by blind computer draw the year ahead? That way everybody would be able to be among the first some of the time and share the glory of the early recognition, and everybody would equally have the chance of being last and being ignored.
Because you can plainly see that nobody seems to want the primaries to go all the way to the final state, everybody wants a front-runner to be declared a winner before that time. Why be last if it's not going to matter because the decision will already have been made by the time it gets to you?
Actually, plan two years ahead...with the Wheel of Fortune spin for the next orientation made right after the two-year elections. This would give both state parties time to plan as well as the candidates map out their schedules.
What's that? Too sensible? Oh. That.
The question now is whether all this sniping is hurting both candidates or whether it will all be forgotten by October. McCain and Romney were getting pretty personal a couple of months ago, and no one thinks about that now.
McCain read that and smiled broadly.
And just as the campaign is increasingly about itself, so too is the coverage, after that Politico piece I excerpted yesterday saying that journalists should stop the pretense and admit that Hillary is toast.
"The authors present it as a novel, even brave, conclusion. It's not," says Atlantic's Marc Ambinder. "Any regular visitor to Chuck Todd's commentary in First Read, any viewer of David Chalian's political commentary on ABC News now, anyone who has studied John King's futuristic charts and graphs on CNN, anyone who has listened to the major commentators -- Russert, Greenfield, Stephanopoulos, on the evening news -- anyone who has read a story by Adam Nagourney on the presidential race, anyone who has listened to or read Jonathan Alter, and I dare say, regular readers of this blog -- have known since before the March 3 primaries that the mathematics of the delegate selection process pose a near-prohibitively difficult challenge for Sen. Clinton. And many in the Clinton world know this. Indeed, the authors quote an anonymous senior Clinton adviser as saying there's only a 10 percent chance that she can win . . ."
And everybody watching basketball's "March madness" knows that people without a chance to win should simply give up and not even struggle. What happened to "never give up" courage? Why did Harry Truman even get up that morning?
And I loved the long litany of reasons followed by the qualification "near-prohibitively difficult" CYA.
Hillary, herself, of course, may actually believe she has a much better chance than that.
I think she'd be foolish to drop out without knowing how the next three states will turn out; Pennsylvania, Indiana and North Carolina. Because until then, nobody really knows for sure how badly Obama has been hurt. Forget the polls. If polls mattered then Hillary would have had the nomination before the season started.
CQ's Craig Crawford embraces an idea I hadn't heard before: "The early June superdelegate 'mini-convention' seems to be the most fair, reasonable and obtainable solution on the table. The idea is to have superdelegates meet right after the primaries conclude and settle this feud between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton by casting their votes and putting someone over the top."
Will there be boozy parties? And would both candidates agree to such a thing?
Not a bad idea, actually...but once again turning the convention back into merely a gala. And since this is essentially what is going to happen at the convention, anyhow, what's the difference? Oh...a couple of extra months of national campaigning for the winner.
There's only one real way for Hillary to win, says Joe Klein, and that's ugly:
"Various media sorts have either called on her to pull out or pronounced her campaign over. I disagree. It's not our place to tell her when to pull the plug on her candidacy--and there still are scenarios by which she can win the nomination. But those scenarios depend on schadenfreude, on the hope that Obama will prove to be massively unworthy . . . that the Wright revelations will prove the first of many, that white people will abandon him and young people in Pennsylvania and elsewhere will stay home, that Obama himself will lose his cool, say something stupid (A likely story, given his cool so far!)."
It's fair to ask how cool he will remain under some real pressure, however. When I was a kid I used to go rabbit hunting almost daily, and I had a very fast dog who could actually catch the rabbits all by himself as long as they kept to their normal rabbit tactics of jinking, because sooner or later they jinked the same way that he did. However, if he forced them out into the open and a straight-away run, it was really a close contest. Until it began to look like he was going to lose, at which point he started barking impatiently, or in frustration. But every bark cost him breath he badly needed for running, and threw him off stride just slightly, besides. After he started barking, the rabbit always won.
And it isn't merely Obama who has to stay cool: so do all of the rest of his perhaps hot-headed staffers and supporters.
This was funny:
At Slate, Melinda Henneberger and Dahlia Lithwick say Hillary should give an Obama-like speech on gender, and they supply some of the rhetoric:
"Bill, darling. I can respect the heck out of your political achievements even as I berate you for demeaning marriage."
Okay, Howard admits, it's not gonna happen, but it sure would be a funny Obama moment. "I can no more walk away from Vince Foster than I could my first black president...oh, wait..."
Is John McCain--cue scary music--hiding his secret Democratic flirtation? The NYT revives the issue:
"What Mr. McCain almost never mentions are two extraordinary moments in his political past that are at odds with the candidate of the present: His discussions in 2001 with Democrats about leaving the Republican Party, and his conversations in 2004 with Senator John Kerry about becoming Mr. Kerry's running mate on the Democratic presidential ticket."
I think we know what the NYT is trying to do here, but what about the law of unintended consequences? I mean, what if this actually makes him more attractive to Democrats than either Hillary or Obama as far as the disaffected losers are concerned?
Speaking of the law of unintended consequences, stand by for this one:
More than 20 companies today offer "personalized genomics" tests that promise to help clients discern from their DNA what diseases they are likely to get, whether they are shy or adventurous, even their propensity to become addicted to drugs. A growing number bypass doctors and deal directly with consumers.
There may suddenly be a number of men saddled with child support payments who suddenly want to know for sure if the child is really their responsibility.
In fact, I'm confident that you can count on it happening. And how about children who haven't been told that they are adopted for some reason but start wondering once they become old enough to start asking questions for themselves? That will happen, too.
Ralph Peters shows us he is not alone, with this spectacular column:
Four thousand dead service members in Iraq? Does any reader of this column believe that Bush, Clinton or Obama has lost a single hour of sleep thinking about those troops and their families?
I suspect that pathetic can't-get-a-date-so-I'll-protest-the-war guy on the street corner down here in the DC suburbs felt a more-genuine concern than any of the above.
Pastor Wright, move over. You have company. He's not quite up there yet with "God damn America", but he's working on it.
Good snippet from NRO:
"The willing suspension of disbelief" [Andy McCarthy]
Do you think General Petraeus may have allowed himself a teensy-weensy smile when he heard about Hil's Bosnia whopper?
Here's an interesting item: Jane's report on the worlds most prosperous and stable nations:
The United Kingdom has been ranked as one of the most stable and prosperous countries in the world, beating the United States, France and even Switzerland in a global assessment of every nation’s achievements and standards.
A one-year investigation and analysis of 235 countries and dependent territories has put the UK joint seventh in the premier league of nations. The top ten comprise also the Vatican, Sweden, Luxembourg, Monaco, Gibraltar, San Marino, Liechtenstein, the Netherlands and the Irish Republic.
The US lies 22nd and Switzerland, normally associated with wealth and untouchable stability, is rated 17th, losing points in the assessment of its social achievements.
The bottom ten, surprisingly, do not include Iraq. They are listed as Gaza and the West Bank, Somalia, Sudan, Afghanistan, Ivory Coast, Haiti, Zimbabwe, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Central African Republic.
The UK received high marks despite the deployment of combat troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, the suicide bombings in London on July 7, 2005, the continuing threat from home-grown terrorists and the collapse of the Northern Rock bank.
The global check on every country recognised as an individual state or territory by the United Nations was carried out by Jane’s Information Group and is published today.
Christian Le Mière, managing editor of Jane’s Country Risk, which compiled the ratings, said: “The UK is a very stable country. But the top 20 or 30 countries are all stable. There are terrorist groups in the UK but there are effective security forces to deal with them. We took the July 7 bombings into account but the UK still came out very well.”
He acknowledged that it was a little unfair to put the Vatican at the top because it did not face the sort of threats and economic pressures of other countries. But under the rating system, which took into account each nation’s political structures, social and economic trends, military and security risks and external relations, the Vatican state scored an average of 99 out of 100. Sweden and Luxembourg were also rated 99, with the UK not far off, with an average of 97, but scoring 100 for its politics, economics and external relations.
Mr. Le Mière said that the US had fallen down the scale, although it still scored an average of 93 out of 100, partly because of the proliferation of small arms owned by Americans and the threat to the population posed by the flow of drugs from across the Mexican border.
I presume they made a sound and sober assessment, but it sure sounds to me a little bit like beauty being in the eye of the beholder. You also have to wonder about what value there is to wondering about Luxembourg, Monaco, Gibraltar, San Marino and Liechtenstein. I think we can safely discount as a European thing the worry about the number of small arms owned by Americans, which has always been the case since the founding of the country, but he sure makes the case for closing the Mexican border, doesn't he? Even if you are pro-illegal immigration you have to recognize this dimension of the problem.
I think it was interesting to rate Britain and France so highly, with Britain actually wondering openly about the problem posed by their unassimilated Muslims, finally, and if America had suffered even just one of France's riots during the last couple of years the press would be foaming at the mouth about it being Bush's fault. Since they aren't, I think it's safe to say that America hasn't suffered domestic unrest even a fraction of France's, where there are said to be sections of Paris where even the police do not dare enter and have been abandoned to internal rule.
Oh, yes: Costa Rica was 40th, but I wonder how much of the ranking was based on the 'prosperity' part?
And here's something you also haven't heard a lot about, but I think you will one of these days. It's another little fun fact that for some reason they've all decided not to mention...until now:
Clinton also implied she might try to poach delegates already pledged to Obama, telling the Philadelphia Daily News that "pledged delegates in most states are not pledged ... there is no requirement that anybody vote for anybody. They're just like superdelegates."
The Clinton campaign tried to play down that exchange after Obama supporters cried foul. Spokesman Phil Singer said she was simply repeating DNC rules on delegates and warned against "reading anything into" her remarks.
"Simply stating a fact, I don't think is cause for hysteria," he said.
And some are pledged only for the first round of voting, after that they are free to go any way they like. The will of the people, in action.