Blogito, Ergo Sum
by Gregg Calkins

18 April 2008, a Friday

Here's a curious item to start your day:

Howard Dean, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, sent out a strong memo to undecided superdelegates via CNN on Thursday: Make up your minds — sooner rather than later.

“I need them to say who they’re for, starting now,” Mr. Dean told CNN anchor Wolf Blitzer.

Why right this minute, with the Pennsylvania primary less than a week away?  Is somebody really afraid of a big Clinton win?  Because, if that doesn't happen, and particularly if Obama wins, then that might well end everything on an electoral note rather than a superdelegate decision, and even Hillary could not complain.

If Dean was going to make this call, it should have been done a month ago, not with a critical primary so close at hand.

David Brooks almost sounds like an unhappy suitor as he describes the candidate he once thought of as an "enormously thoughtful man".

...the aura around Obama has changed. Furiously courting Democratic primary voters and apparently exhausted, Obama has emerged as a more conventional politician and a more orthodox liberal.

He sprinkled his debate performance Wednesday night with the sorts of fibs, evasions and hypocrisies that are the stuff of conventional politics. He claimed falsely that his handwriting wasn’t on a questionnaire about gun control. He claimed that he had never attacked Clinton for her exaggerations about the Tuzla airport, though his campaign was all over it. Obama piously condemned the practice of lifting other candidates’ words out of context, but he has been doing exactly the same thing to John McCain, especially over his 100 years in Iraq comment.

Obama also made a pair of grand and cynical promises that are the sign of someone who is thinking more about campaigning than governing.

This is why so many people have pointed out that Obama has absolutely no experience at governing.  He doesn't know any more about that then he does America's white middle-class church-going hunter.

...he rigidly locked himself into a policy that will not be fully implemented for another three years.

If Obama is elected, he will either go back on this pledge — in which case he would destroy his credibility — or he will risk genocide in the region and a viciously polarizing political war at home.

I think you can count on him keeping only the pledges that he feels like at that time.  And I don't think he cares about genocide "over there" any more than Democrats did in Southeast Asia after our troops were back home.

If you think Obama is elitist when it comes to Americans, you can imagine his disdain for 7th century barbarians still living in tents and governed by tribal chiefs called sheiks.  He may even go back further into his racial memory and remember that Arabs have historically enslaved more black people than Americans ever did.  He might even remember that the American slave ships did not go over and trap innocent black kids playing happily in the jungle, they sailed routinely into Arab ports and BOUGHT their cargoes. 

If genocide happens in Arab countries, will Obama care?

...the fact is that voters want a president who basically shares their values and life experiences. Fairly or not, they look at symbols like Michael Dukakis in a tank, John Kerry’s windsurfing or John Edwards’s haircut as clues about shared values.

... When Obama goes to a church infused with James Cone-style liberation theology, when he makes ill-informed comments about working-class voters, when he bowls a 37 for crying out loud, voters are going to wonder if he’s one of them. Obama has to address those doubts, and he has done so poorly up to now.

It's not his fault, David.  He is who he is, a product of his background just like all the rest of us are, and they simply are not the same shared values and life experiences.  Accordingly, he has to try to fake them.  And you can do that, as the Wizard of Oz found out, only until some ordinary mongrel pulls back your curtain.

But even worse than that for Obama is the fact that he's facing a candidate, in McCain, who actually is more like those people.  Liberals don't have much use for military service, but quite a large percentage of the American electorate, going all the way back to voters even older than I am, have military service experience.  Even if it was after WWII, in Korea or Vietnam, we are still proud of our service.  John Kerry would be president today if he had not come home from Vietnam and slandered his fellow veterans so badly, and the fact that he did it for personal gain only made it worse.  In the end, though, he wanted his medals and his honor back.

McCain never threw his away.  Obama never even tried to get any.  That's important to a lot of middle-class Americans, even if it may not be to elite college professors.

Think I'm off-base here?  Okay...close your eyes and form a mental picture of Senator Obama doing what Senator McCain did recently...going to Iraq to visit the troops.

See what I mean?  How's this interesting comment?

"What is your strategy to beat the Republicans in November?" the woman asked Obama.

"That was the rollout of the Republican campaign against me," Obama responded. "That is what they will do. They will try to focus on all these issues." He said he would answer the attacks "sharply and crisply" and seek to turn the debate from "tit-for-tat silliness" to serious issues such as the economy and Iraq. "If Republicans come at me, I will come right back at them," Obama asserted, to loud cheers.

He'll engage in tit-for-tat silliness only if he has to?  But he's willing, if that's the way Republicans want to play? 

This observation is apparently the personal interpretation of the Washington Post staff writers, most likely, but they are seasoned political observer and, if it is accurate, then it shows the extent of Obama's connection problem:

Obama and his team appeared taken aback by some of the negative reviews of his performance in the 90-minute debate in Philadelphia...  In their estimation, he had more than held his own...

They're from a different planet and cannot quite grasp our culture?

Interesting observations in this Washington Post item:

It might seem a tad ironic for multimillionaires such as Clinton and Limbaugh to be calling anyone "elitist," but "elitism" isn't really about money. Donald Trump has money, but few think "elitist" when thinking of Trump. Elitism is instead an attitude, a demeanor, a vocabulary, a self-possessed air. It suggests condescension and contempt, a lack of empathy, an arrogant aloofness.

Admittedly, it's a fine line. It's okay to be perceived as smart (Bill Clinton) but it's not okay to be perceived as bookish and intellectual (Adlai Stevenson). And it's okay to be elite. Olympic athletes are elite, as are Marines and Navy SEALs. But it's not okay to be insufferably proud of your elite skills, which is just obnoxious.

Perhaps, but we Marines don't much care if you do think we're obnoxious. 

Just as people can seem elitist, places can, too. Obama had the misfortune to make his "bitter" comment at a fundraiser in San Francisco, a city often derided as a bastion of ultraliberalism, which conservatives have long used as a synonym for elitism. No matter that the facts don't support the slur (do they ever?). Most people in San Francisco live in rented apartments (not elitist), and many of its residents are impoverished immigrants. Los Angeles gets the same bum rap, mainly because it's home to some wealthy and blabby celebrities. Some liberal college towns are caricatured as elitist (Cambridge, Berkeley) but other liberal college towns (Madison, Austin) are not.

So what is he saying?  That they are caricatured for no reason at all, made up out of thin air?  That it would be just as easy to picture Madison and Austin as elitist and Cambridge and Berkeley as ordinary?  Again, picture Senator Obama going to Iraq and visiting the troops.  Caricatures, in the end, must contain a germ of truth or else they don't work at all.

Even so, there isn't much in Obama's background that suggests the word will stick, says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. She runs through Obama's basic bio -- his father abandoned the family when Obama was 2; he was raised by a single mother who, at times, struggled financially; he worked his way through law school...

Oops...I thought he was struggling to pay off student loans, now he worked his way through law school?  And how come we start with law school, not the elite prep school he attended before that?  Curious gaps like these look like intentional glaring omissions to some.

Drew Westen, a clinical psychologist and political consultant in Atlanta...offers one key amendment: The accusation of elitism plays into a larger narrative spun by his opponents -- that Obama is different. Some voters, Westen says, will assimilate the word along with other false notions, such as that Obama is secretly a Muslim, that he doesn't wear a flag pin because he's unpatriotic, that his pastor is unpatriotic, "that he isn't one of us."

Westen suggests not letting it go. Obama should fight back swiftly and often, he says, by offering the "counter-narrative" that is his autobiography: "Let people know that he's just like them."

Spoken like a clinical psychologist, who definitely isn't "just like us", either.  Obama himself argues that he is different...a different kind of politician, who will take the country in a different direction.  Hard to make that argument when you're just one of the boys.

So to speak.

Another difference.  Calling McCain one of the boys is an approbation; calling Obama one of the boys risks giving offense where none was intended.  How can Joe Sixpack kick back and relax around someone like that?

On a more serious issue, nuclear proliferation, Charles Krauthammer observes:

The six-party talks on North Korea have failed miserably. They did not prevent Pyongyang from testing a nuclear weapon and entering the club. Now North Korea has broken yet again its agreement to reveal all its nuclear facilities.

The other test case was Iran. The EU-3 negotiations (Britain, France and Germany) went nowhere. Each U.N. Security Council resolution enacting what passed for sanctions was more useless than the last. Uranium enrichment continues.

One of my Bush-hater friends, curiously enough, who on alternate Tuesdays condemns Bush for being unilateral, manages to chalk both of those failures up to Bush because he didn't solve either one of those problems.

What's that?  Oh.  Yeah, I know.

Krauthammer is simply struggling vainly, it seems to me, to make an unmakeable case:

There are four ways to deal with rogue states going nuclear: preemption, deterrence, missile defense and regime change.

Preemption works but, as a remedy, it is spent. Iraq was defanged by the 1981 Israeli airstrike, by the 1991 Persian Gulf War (which uncovered Saddam Hussein's clandestine nuclear programs) and finally by the 2003 invasion, which ended the Hussein dynasty, père et deux fils.

A collateral effect of the Iraq war was Libya's nuclear disarmament. Seeing Hussein's fate, Moammar Gaddafi declared and dismantled his nuclear program. And if November's National Intelligence Estimate is to be believed, the Iraq invasion even induced Iran to temporarily suspend weaponization and enrichment.

But the cost of preemption is simply too high. No one is going to renew the Korean War with an attack on Pyongyang. And the prospects of an attack on Iran's facilities are now vanishingly small. What to do?

Deterrence. It worked in the two-player Cold War. Will it work against multiple rogues? It seems quite suitable for North Korea, whose regime, far from being suicidal, is obsessed with survival.

Iran is a different proposition. With its current millenarian leadership, deterrence is indeed a feeble gamble, as I wrote in 2006 in making the case for considering preemption. But if preemption is off the table, deterrence is all you've got. Our task is to make deterrence in this context less feeble.

But Charles simply cannot bring himself to accept the unacceptable: you cannot deter a suicide bomber by threatening him with death.  And all the more so if he considers dying in the attempt to be a glorious victory which will bring him glories he could not otherwise attain.  Dying and going to paradise as a martyr is his GOAL.

Two ways: Begin by making the retaliatory threat in response to Iranian nuclear aggression so unmistakable and so overwhelming that the non-millenarians in leadership would stay the hand or even remove those taking their country to the point of extinction.

This is the only significant chance we have with Iran...but there don't seem to be any non-millenarians in the leadership, and those who exist among the ordinary people are powerless in the Iranian regime.  They couldn't even hope to attain their goals without our significant assistance. 

But there is an adjunct to deterrence: missile defense. Against a huge Soviet arsenal, this was useless. Against small powers with small arsenals, i.e., North Korea and Iran, it becomes extremely effective in conjunction with deterrence.

For the sake of argument, imagine a two-layered anti-missile system in which each layer is imperfect, with, say, a 90 percent shoot-down accuracy. That means one in 100 missiles gets through both layers. That infinitely strengthens deterrence by radically degrading the possibility of a successful first strike. Even Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might refrain from launching an arsenal of, say, 20 nukes if his scientific advisers showed him that there was only an 18.2 percent chance of any getting through-- and a 100 percent chance that a retaliatory counterattack of hundreds of Israeli (and/or American) nukes would reduce the world's first Islamic republic to a cinder.

His scientific advisers are far more likely to point out that not only isn't there any such 90% defense system, there definitely isn't time for two layers to operate in the airspace between Iran and Israel.  And Iran's high-mucky-muck has already said that all he wants is one single missile exploded in Israel.  Just one.  He also said that what happened afterwards to Iran did not matter, in that case.

Now when a guy says something like this openly, you ignore him at your peril.

And the other thing to remember is that Ahmad and the Mad Mullahs isn't targeting the United States.  The only country that they really care about destroying is Israel, and they care about the U.S. only because we are preventing that from happening.  So far.

Israel needs the missile defense system, but they don't need Charles Krauthammer to convince them of that fact. 

But do they want to play a defensive war tactic with an 18.2 percent chance that the one missile which will destroy their country will get through and do that?

Would you?

Krauthammer also subscribes to the illusion that what happens to Iran is all something about which the United States holds the power of decision.  We can blame Bush for either doing or not doing something, on alternate weeks. 

In the end, though, Israel is the only country being targeted and threatened with being wiped off of the map...and in so many clearly-spoken words.

They're the people who need to be convinced about the relative merits of the four choices: preemption, deterrence, missile defense, and regime change.  In the end it will be their decision, not ours.

Eugene Robinson subscribes to a similar theory, only with considerably more omniscience on his part, naturally, as he chides the ABC debate staff for their failures:

He should have pressed instead for more explanation of Clinton's proposal to counter the Iranian government's nuclear ambitions with a broad shield of U.S. nuclear deterrence -- protecting not just Israel but other countries in the region as well, such as Saudi Arabia. This strikes me as the kind of big, complicated idea that someone should have asked Clinton to explain further. That didn't happen, though.

In the looking-glass world of nuclear weapons theory, a U.S. pledge to nuke Iran if it ever nuked Israel could make officials in both countries breathe easier. One potential benefit would be to lessen the possibility that Israeli leaders, fearing an Iranian attack that might eliminate Israel's ability to retaliate, would order a preemptive strike.

But is it wise to specify America's reaction to a threat that does not yet exist? Iran, after all, is years away from being able to build, let alone deploy, a nuclear bomb.

Since one of the very few things we seem to have established conclusively when it comes to intelligence about Iraq and Iran and Afghanistan and Pakistan is that we really DON'T HAVE any good intelligence over there, we lack what they call "humint" in those societies, how confident can Israel feel that Eugene Robinson knows what he's talking about here?

Eugene, of course, has no doubt, none at all, or maybe he's just willing to take the chance that he's right...but will the Israelis?  Why, indeed, should they?

And isn't it more that simply a little foolish to presume that Israel is even interested in retaliation?  Does the state of Israel really care, after they have been destroyed, if Iran is likewise destroyed in retaliation?  I doubt it.

The threat of retaliation works only when neither side really wants to be killed.  In the case of Iran, this isn't so.

It also qualified as news that when asked about soaring gasoline prices, Clinton vowed to investigate what she believes is "manipulation" of the market. She added that she would recommend releasing some oil from the nation's strategic reserve. Surely she understands that the price of oil is set globally and reflects such factors as soaring demand from China and the weakness of the dollar. What does her proposed remedy have to do with the price consumers pay at the gas pump?

Robinson is correct here: it's a stupid thing to say, especially the idea that some "vast XX conspiracy" is manipulating the world market, especially when OPEC is setting most of the prices.  At any rate, the capacity of the SPR is only 727 million barrels.  That's less than a 2-month supply, even if it could be drained that rapidly, which it cannot.  And if you don't intend for that oil to be lost forever then it will have to be replaced at some future time...when prices are probably going to be higher?  George Bush was roundly faulted for ordering the filling of the SPR when oil prices were so high...but since prices continued to increase, he must now look like a genius for that decision.  If anyone noticed things like that, that is.

Obama has another problem...Hamas likes him.

"Senator Obama has repeatedly rejected and denounced the actions of Hamas, a terrorist organization responsible for the deaths of many innocents, that is dedicated to Israel's destruction," Obama campaign spokesman Tommy Vietor said.

Is this the same Hamas that appeared in Obama's spiritual advisor's church bulletin?  Is it the same Hamas being visited by prominent Democrat superdelegate Jimmy Carter, whose vote Obama is seeking?

As Wes Pruden puts it:

Sen. Obama was briefly put on the spot with a question about still another of his shady friends in Chicago, but he was allowed to dance away without the obvious follow-up. What was the extent of his friendship with Bill Ayers, an ex-con and unrepentant member of a ring of cop-killers from the '60s? This could have been a fastball but was only a floater, and the Illinois Kid sent it back sharply for a Texas Leaguer. "The notion that somehow, as a consequence of me knowing someone in detestable acts 40 years ago when I was 8 years old, that somehow that reflects on my values, is crazy."

But that's not quite the point of the question. The senator knew that Bill Ayers was more than "just a guy who lives in my neighborhood" and was once a member of the Weathermen when they served together on the board of the Woods Fund, a small but radical Chicago foundation of suspicious provenance. At the behest of the unrepentant Bill Ayers — who boasts that he and his wife Bernadine Dohrn, who both served time after years on the run, didn't do enough to plant bombs to kill innocents when they had the chance — the foundation awarded $6,000 to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright's Trinity United Church "in recognition of Barack Obama's contributions." Messrs. Obama and Ayers voted to award a generous grant to the Arab-American Action Network, to finance "actions" (not otherwise specified).

This was all very innocent in Mr. Obama's telling of his association with Bill Ayers, much like his association with the Rev. Mr. Wright. Serendipity follows Barack Obama everywhere. The senator was never there when Mr. Wright was riding off on one of his racist rants. He overslept that morning, even missed Sunday school, or dozed through the sermon, or was daydreaming, or preoccupied with trying to scratch an itch unobserved by others in his pew, or something. It's always something.

The more we learn about Barack Obama the more interesting he becomes, as Hillary often hints but knows better than to be specific. The skeletons will march out of the closet later, long after the corpse of the primary campaign is laid to rest and Hillary is relegated to the mourners' chorus. She answered "yes, yes, yes" when an interlocutor asked whether she thought Barack Obama could win in November. But her eyes and her demeanor said "no, no, no." Not if she can help it.

Eugene Robinson said none of this was interesting and we should forget all about it. 

Peggy Noonan describes what happened to Obama over his San Francisco remarks, perfectly, I think.

Sen. Obama seems honestly surprised by the furor his the-poor-cling-to-God-and-guns remarks elicited, and if one considers his background—intense marginalization followed by the establishment's embrace—this is understandable. He was only caught speaking the secret language of America's elite, and what he said was not meant as a putdown. It was an explanation aimed at ameliorating the elites' anger toward and impatience with normal people. It's a way of explaining them, of saying, "You have to remember they're not comfortable and educated like us, they're vulnerable and so we must try to understand them and feel sympathy for and solidarity with them." You could say this at any high-class dinner party in America and not cause a ruffle. But America is not a high-class dinner party.

My only comment is that if he wishes us to understand that what he said was not intended to hurt, or meant as a putdown, that he extends the same understanding to those of us who are white and unwittingly do the same thing to black people.  It seems to me that I see a lot of people these days claiming to be insulted, when none was intended. 

A small laugher from the Weekly Standard:

Wired's David Axe makes Canberra's case

The F-22's long range and twin engines make it a good choice for replacing aged Australia's F-111s and F/A-18s. ... The F-22s would top off what amounts to the biggest rearmament in decades for the island nation.

Well, I guess that Australia kind of looks like an island to some people.

Ann Coulter does it again...an audible grin:

It is an article of faith with the Democrats that they must fool Americans by simulating agreement with normal people. The winner of the Democratic primary is always the candidate who does the best impersonation of an American.

But then, after all their hard work making believe they're into NASCAR and God, some Democrat invariably slips and lets us know it's all a big fake-out. They're like a gay guy trying to act straight who accidentally refers to Brad Pitt as "yummy!"


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