31 December 2006, we made it this far...just one more day...
A rainy morning, there went my chances of a fire out in the yard to burn up the leaves, et al. No, I didn't get around to putting a tarp over them to keep them dry, what did you expect? I'd rather blog.
And Carol sent me an interesting link this morning, because on it I found a federal judge letting 'former ambassador' Joe Wilson's attorney know how the cow ate the cabbage:
"As counsel should well understand, making disparaging comments in a television interview about a criminal defendant in a highly publicized case on the eve of trial could cause potential members of the jury pool to engender negative attitudes about the defendant.
And even more disturbing is counsel's uninformed opinion that there is sufficient evidence to convict Mr. Libby of the charges on which he will be tried.
Such comments by a member of the Bar, and especially someone who was a former prosecutor, is not only shocking but borders on unethical conduct. Counsel should have known that the comments she made were improper, but if she did not, she does now. Counsel is therefore on notice that any similar comments will not be tolerated."
Borders on unethical conduct, and if you didn't know before you sure know now. But how would she know, her client is one of the world's champion liars. What's that? Libby is on trial for perjury and Wilson is not? Very good point...when they put Wilson under oath he actually told the truth, which is why the 9/11 Commission called him a liar, not a perjurer.
And I could count on the New York Times, as always:
As daylight broke over the Arab world and news of Saddam Hussein’s hanging spread over the airwaves and the Internet, the execution proved just as profound for what it did not change as for what it did.
Very profound. Those who thought nothing would change and those who thought everything would change have just been profoundly enlightened.
Almost four years after United States troops entered Iraq with a broader foreign policy goal of ushering in a “new” Middle East, one built on democracy and rule of law, the execution of Mr. Hussein on one of the holiest days in Islam marked the unceremonious demise of that strategy, many Arab analysts said.
“If you compare the results to the objectives the U.S. claimed to realize, whether it was democracy or control of the region, their policies have evidently failed,” said Nawaf Kabbara, professor of political science at Balamand University in Beirut. “They were not able to spread democracy, control anything or make any serious breakthrough. It is a failure on all levels.”
Now, about that bridge I have for sale at a very good special price, only for you, only for today...
As for entering Iraq four years ago with a broader foreign policy, one built on democracy and the rule of law, here's what Bush said:
STATEMENT BY THE PRESIDENT (excerpts)
Today I am signing into law H.R. 4655...
(which says, in part: "It should be the policy of the United States to support efforts to remove the regime headed by Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq and to promote the emergence of a democratic government to replace that regime." -- GC)
Let me be clear on what the U.S. objectives are: The United States wants Iraq to rejoin the family of nations as a freedom-loving and law-abiding member. This is in our interest and that of our allies within the region.
The United States favors an Iraq that offers its people freedom at home.
I categorically reject arguments that this is unattainable due to Iraq's history or its ethnic or sectarian make-up. Iraqis deserve and desire freedom like everyone else.
The United States looks forward to a democratically supported regime that would permit us to enter into a dialogue leading to the reintegration of Iraq into normal international life. (EA)
--William J. Clinton, October 31, 1998
Oops, sorry, it wasn't Bush who said that, after all. Well, maybe later on he did, but American policy regarding Iraq had already been established by that time.
You mark my words: in due course both of the Clintons will be boasting about this. Other portions of Public Law 105-338 state emphatically that Saddam's government is in "material and unacceptable breach of its international obligations" and PL 105-235 "urged" Clinton to do something about it.
It's unacceptable, we urge you to make it acceptable. Please.
It also "urged" the president to get a war crimes tribunal going for the purpose of "indicting, prosecuting and imprisoning Saddam Hussein and other Iraqi officials" for genocide, among other small offenses.
The Beirut political science professor who can't see success for failure is a direct beneficiary of spreading democracy in Lebanon, because if anyone thinks Syria would have yielded its occupation for any other reason should be your next buyer for the bridge.
Like it or not, imperfect or not, shaky or not, there are now democratically elected governments in Afghanistan and Iraq, where before there were none. Literally millions of Afghans and Iraqis voted for the first time in their lives, even while risking them in the process. A constitution was written and approved, something the democratic European Union has so far not managed to do. The professor would like all of these things not to have happened, so he simply refuses to see that they did.
Whether you like it or not, democracy has been spread. It might not be your particular favorite variety of democracy (the last I've heard from some anti-Iraq-war people they don't even care for our own US democracy very much, either), but Bush said clearly--if you were listening--that he didn't expect it would be like America's democracy but something more appropriate to their own way of life in Iraq.
Clinton said, emphatically, that he knew the Iraqis could do it! Trust me on this one, he'll soon be reminding you that this was his idea all along! Bush jumped on his bandwagon, he'll tell you, and thereafter did things wrong, but he was for overthrowing Saddam, trying him and punishing him for the crime of genocide, ad a minimum, and thereafter establishing a democratic regime in Iraq.
Try as you might, you cannot subtract Clinton's eight years from the Iraqi equation. Clinton had the right instincts, he just lacked the will to do anything meaningful. In turn he "urged" the United Nations, who in turn "urged" Iraq, who in turn "urged" the UN inspectors out of the country, in what we non-sophisticates call a circle-jerk.
Now Bush's critics call him the jerk, but whether they like it or not, whether the Beirut professor can see it or not from his ivory tower, the whole region has, in fact, been jerked awake to the possibility of democratically-elected governments.
If you doubt this, ask the Saudi despots how they're sleeping these nights. Ask Syria's big-wig how easy lies the head that wears a crown. Even the rulers of Iran are recognizing that their false veneer of democracy is wearing thin in spots...the people are starting to ask, finally, that their ballots actually get counted afterwards.
As for the execution of Saddam, it's time and place and manner, those were the decisions of the elected Iraqi government according to their own rules of law, not ours. We didn't execute Saddam on one of the holiest days in the Muslim year, they did. (We don't even recognize our own holy days any more.)
The rhetoric of the Arabs often tends towards the bizarre.
For those Arabs who celebrated America’s embrace of the rule of law, the quick execution, coming before the conclusion of other trials against Mr. Hussein for crimes against humanity, left a bitter taste of stolen justice. Even Mr. Hussein’s staunchest enemies expressed a sense of bitterness at the end.
“It is evident that they were not after justice,” said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut. “It was a political decision, because as soon as they got a sentence on him they executed him. What mattered was his death rather than finding justice.”
The logic in this argument would be that justice could not be found until after every person with a complaint against Saddam had had his day in court. Or perhaps it means that anyone who commits multiple crimes must be tried for each and every one of them before sentence can be passed on any of them. This notion is a bit silly on its face, the spectacle of the Oklahoma City bomber, McVeigh, in separate trials for each and every person he murdered cannot possibly fit anyone's idea of justice other than maybe a trial lawyer's.
Wasn't he caught because he was pulled over for speeding? I wonder if he went to court over that traffic ticket?
What would "justice" have been for Saddam? Or is "justice" for the victims? No, we say that we bring the criminal TO justice. Justice is in the court-room, the blindfolded lady with the sword and the scales.
In this case, Saddam committed a crime for which he was found guilty and sentenced to death.
Bringing a series of multiple trials after that might have made Saddam's surviving victims feel better, true, but is that what is meant by "justice"?
Frankly, I was a bit surprised that they tried him first on what might be considered a lesser charge...killing only a few hundred, certainly far below his record kill. I wonder if the prosecutors thought he might not get the death penalty for the first few cases and intended to bring increasingly greater grievances until that sentence finally occurred?
Here's what I call a slipsie:
“Executing the martyr Saddam Hussein on the first day of Adha in one of the holiest months of the year is meant to defy the feeling of Muslims, to invoke sectarian strife and to confirm that Bush’s policy as vindictive and aggressive,” said a statement by the union of the Islamist-dominated professional associations union in Amman, Jordan.
See, you can't really defy the feelings of Muslims by invoking sectarian strife between Muslims. If they were united in their feelings there wouldn't be any sectarian strife in the first place.
Saddam's trial and punishment were called for by Clinton, this wasn't Bush's new policy, Clinton even, amusingly enough, cited Saddam's attempted assassination of the first president Bush (nobody knew at that time there would even be a second president Bush) as one of the casus belli for his, Clinton's, policy.
Clinton wanted a trial under U.N. auspices, of course, whereas we've somehow given the Iraqis the idea that they are a sovereign country once again, able to try their own criminals.
And there's another laugher for you. The people who scream the loudest about Bush acting illegally by invading a sovereign country also scream that we should be telling the new Iraqi government what to do and not to do about a wide variety of things. The Democrat grinning idiot savant foreign policy expert who wants to be president is rather outspoken about how he'd break the country up into three parts, after which he would... No doubt in his mind about who really owns Iraq.
Two more items from this great article before I go:
Even those who believed Mr. Hussein was guilty expressed doubts about his trial, and about whether Iraq’s rebuilt justice system was really the kind of civil institution that could support a true democracy.
Your exam question is: what is a "true democracy"? For bonus points, cite three examples.
“Saddam Hussein was guilty a thousand times over, but still the Americans and the Iraqi government managed to run a shabby trial,” said Jihad al-Khazen, a columnist and former editor of the pan-Arab newspapers Al Hayat and Asharq al Awsat. “If they organized a fair trial with international observers that could have served as a model for other countries. Instead they messed it up..."
A guy named Jihad with an attitude like his would have been the perfect unbiased juror, of course. Somehow I don't think he is really well-qualified to be a critic.
Okay, okay, I can't quit yet...for SUPER bonus points, describe where the unbiased juror pool is located.
And now I come to our own version of the nutty Arab political science professor, Richard A. (they never listened to me soon enough) Clarke. He says our focus on Iraq has left seven other important things overlooked, but first he manages to put in:
I called for an urgent meeting to discuss the threat al-Qaeda posed to the United States. The Cabinet-level meeting eventually took place -- but not until Sept. 4, 2001.
Yes, I know...if Clarke had actually HAD any real information to provide, that would have left a week in which to round up the other 19 hijackers. He called a meeting, because that's what bureaucrats do. At the meeting he probably suggested forming a committee. Perhaps modestly willing to assume its chair.
Assuming, without the Patriot Act even in the planning stage, there had been adequate legal grounds on which to arrest the at-the-time-only-potential hijackers. The ACLU would have been screaming their heads off. Even today we find the Flying Imams being defended and the airport security attacked for taking notice of their bizarre behavior.
Since the US lacked legal grounds to even look inside Moussaoui's laptop computer, I think Clarke is, as usual, full of self-importance...
In every administration, there are usually only about a dozen barons who can really initiate and manage meaningful changes in national security policy.
...he left the administration when he found they no longer considered him to be one of the barons...
...and hot air. He proves that by listing his #1 overlooked complaint:
Global warming: When the possibility of invading Iraq surfaced in 2001, senior Bush administration officials hadn't thought much about global warming, except to wonder whether it was caused by human activity or by sunspots. Today, the world's scientists and many national leaders worry that the world has passed the point of no return on global warming. If it has...
Whacko time. Clarke not only is not correct about the conclusions of the world's scientists but he obviously doesn't really believe them, himself, or he wouldn't say "if". I wonder if Clarke even knows there have been previous ice ages and periods of global warming? Hmmm...do his world's scientists?
Russian revanchism: When Russian President Vladimir Putin and Bush leave office in rapid succession in 2008 and 2009, it seems likely that Russia will be less of a democracy and less inclined to cooperate with Washington than it was six years ago, when Bush stared into the eyes and looked into the heart of the Russian leader. ... If Bush hoped that turning a blind eye to all this would help win Russian cooperation in Iraq and Iran, the strategy failed.
It sounds rather like he thinks Bush should have followed Reagan's lead and put Putin on the Evil Empire list. I know others who feel the same way, whenever they're not complaining that Bush isn't diplomatic enough.
Latin America's leftist lurch: Today, Castro has been replaced, but not just by another Cuban dictator. The leader of the hemisphere's new anti-Yankee alliance is Hugo Chávez, the democratically elected president of Venezuela. Chávez's anti-U.S. campaign is supported by Cuban intelligence and Venezuelan oil money. By 2006, Venezuela and Cuba were not alone in their opposition to Washington; kindred spirits have been elected in Bolivia, Ecuador and Nicaragua. Having begun his administration pledging new cooperation with Mexico, Bush backtracked after Sept. 11, focusing instead on tightening immigration and border controls.
It would appear that Latin America is a really big place. Maybe people who speak Spanish, even Portuguese, are all alike? Mexico, Nicaragua, Cuba, Venezuela, Chile, Brazil...all alike, really. How about the idea that "cooperation" with Mexico means the US should forget about immigration laws and border controls? Where is the "co" part in cooperation?
Shouldn't Mexico be the one standing up like an adult and assuming responsibility for controlling their own border?
Africa at war: The genocide spilling from the Darfur region of Sudan into neighboring Chad has captured attention in the United States mainly because of (belated) media coverage and an aggressive advocacy campaign by concerned groups, but the prospects of Washington dealing with the problem seem slim. Darfur, however, is only one of a pox of conflicts that, together with HIV/AIDS, are depopulating parts of Africa and robbing it of potential wealth from mineral, oil and gas deposits. Wars have also raged in Chad, Congo, Liberia, Sierra Leone and Somalia. Were it not for the Iraq war, Washington may have acted to stop what the Bush administration admits is genocide in Darfur, or taken steps to prevent the chaos sweeping Somalia after a group affiliated with al-Qaeda took over the country and left Ethiopia no choice but to invade in hopes of preventing a more disastrous war. Unfortunately, even designating a small presence of U.S. Special Forces to lead a U.N.-approved peacekeeping force in Darfur appears beyond the capability of the badly stretched American military.
Who knew that's all that was lacking to tame a continent teeming with trouble? If only our troops weren't dying in Iraq they could be dying in Darfur. See, the small group would be leading the UN forces...we always take the lead, no matter how small our presence. Mr. Clarke is nothing if not humble.
Elsewhere in today's Post the news is that Bush is tripling aid to Africa. Sorry, Richard, bad timing for your column. However, while I understand the necessity for acting in our own national self-interest in Iraq and the Middle East, I am less certain of the necessity of interfering in every aspect of African warfare, disease, famine, and so on. Perhaps Clarke no longer sees the United States as a nation with national interests but more as a Worldwide Red Cross/Salvation Army organization?
If the US wasn't involved in Iraq then it could have gotten involved in Darfur or Somalia (I thought Clinton took care of that one?), that seems plausible enough, but that's a lot like saying if I hadn't been at the gas station buying gasoline then I could have been at the grocery store buying milk. You can't do everything at once.
Arms control freeze: Once atop several administrations' national security agendas, international arms control has received little White House attention since the Bush administration decided early on to walk away from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.
Oh, my. Mr. Clarke does not even seem to know what a Treaty is, a contract in writing between two or more political authorities. The hitch is that one of the contracting political authorities no longer existed.
Look, Mr. Clarke, when you are married and then your wife dies, the marriage contract between you no longer exists. You cannot enforce it and you cannot get a divorce from it. (Perhaps, if you are Catholic enough, you can get it annulled.)
Bush was, in my opinion, dumb for even bringing up the subject, just like he could easily have skipped the WMD argument in Iraq entirely and gone back to open combat in Iraq simply on the basis of the "material and unacceptable breaches" that Clinton complained about in 1998 and Congress "requested" he do something about. (Unfortunately, the 'something' was vague and Clinton was nothing if not good at vague.) Saddam's violation of the cease-fire agreement was adequate reason. Further, it would have had the advantage of being able to invoke the cooperation of the original coalition members.
There's a warning about not trying to gild the lily, and Bush found out why he should not have tried.
The ABM Treaty with the Soviet Union served a purpose. With the Soviet Union gone, the idea of the ABM Treaty only served afterwards to prevent the United States from creating a defensive system rather than an offensive one. You'd think peaceniks would be applauding, he wanted a system to prevent getting hit rather than bigger missiles to hit others, but no...it was Bush's idea, you see, therefore it must be bad.
However, now that North Korea has shown they have the chance to touch one off that can reach the US, suddenly everybody on the West Coast thinks that Reagan's Star Wars is a dandy idea and one which should have started sooner and progressed faster. To them it's Bush's fault that he hasn't done enough. (Nancy Pelosi says her tactic is going to be spending more time in Washington DC.)
Transnational crime: In a nationally televised address in 1989, President George H.W. Bush held aloft a bag of cocaine that had been sold near the White House and declared a "War on Drugs." That initiative was later enlarged to target the international criminal cartels engaged in human trafficking, gun and contraband smuggling, money laundering and cyber fraud. The momentum from these efforts produced international treaties to combat hidden global crime conglomerates, but the White House leadership necessary to coordinate dozens of U.S. agencies and mobilize other nations has dissipated.
One wonders if Clarke is smoking some. Did he nod off through all the complaints about the Bush administration illegally monitoring international telephone calls and bank deposits? Not national phone calls, not calls involving only US citizens, but international calls from known criminals? Ha!
Moreover, the world's international crime cartels received a major shot in the arm with the occupation of Afghanistan by NATO forces. From relatively low levels of heroin production in 2001, Afghanistan's economy is now dependent upon the widespread cultivation of heroin that is flooding black markets in Europe and Asia. With most of the U.S. Army either in Iraq, heading to Iraq or returning from Iraq, insufficient U.S. forces were available to prevent the once-liberated Afghanistan from morphing into a narco-state.
I found this fascinating. Does Clarke realize he just dinged the effectiveness of NATO forces? Does Clark think Afghanistan is a sovereign state or that US forces can simply act there at will? Does Clarke believe the US military has been created to act as an international drug police force? How about it, soccer moms, do you want your kid to die while trying to keep Europeans and Asians from satisfying their drug habit? Isn't there enough criticism of what we have been trying to do in Columbia?
The Pakistani-Afghan border: Afghanistan increasingly receives the attention of senior U.S. policymakers, not because of the narcotics problem, but mainly because the once-defeated Taliban again threaten Afghan and coalition forces. However, if there is a solution, it lies on the other side of the Khyber Pass where a sanctuary has emerged, a Taliban-like state within a state in western Pakistan. Dealing with that problem is more than Washington has been willing or able to handle, for it involves the complex issue of who governs nuclear-armed Pakistan and how.
Thus far, Washington has accepted Gen. Pervez Musharraf's half-hearted measures for dealing with the nuclear proliferation network of A.Q. Khan...
No mention of whose watch it was on which AQ operated, perhaps even Mr. Clarke's. Still, the fact is that unless Clarke wants us to keep on invading sovereign countries at the wave of his finger, we have to deal with Musharraf via the diplomatic route. If his measures seem half-hearted to Clark then maybe he hasn't taken into account the fact that Musharraf has to deal with several different factions in his own country, himself, and it's somewhat more difficult even than getting Democrats and Republicans to work in a bipartisan manner.
Frankly, we're lucky to be getting as much cooperation as we are. What Mr. Clarke would just as soon overlook is the fact that Bush, personally, is the one who gained Musharraf's cooperation, while walking a delicate line by not provoking India at the same time. Indeed, our relations with India are excellent. Oh. That international relationship.
As the president contemplates sending even more U.S. forces into the Iraqi sinkhole, he should consider not only the thousands of fatalities, the tens of thousands of casualties and the hundreds of billions of dollars already lost. He must also weigh the opportunity cost of taking his national security barons off all the other critical problems they should be addressing -- problems whose windows of opportunity are slamming shut, unheard over the wail of Baghdad sirens.
Clarke, in my opinion, fails to understand that if the US is not perceived to 'win' in Iraq then the Middle East will suffer the same fate that Indo-China did after we were perceived as 'losing' in Vietnam. Several million people lost their lives after we left and the North Vietnamese violated their peace treaty agreement and reinvaded South Vietnam. (We 'lost', as a result, because we did not promptly go back and enforce it. Nor did the fabulous United Nations. It is almost amusing to read the historical revisionists who are now claiming the US suffered a huge military defeat in 1975, after which North Vietnam took over the country. These people are proudly flaunting their ignorance.) Millions of refugees, those who survived the purges, fled by boat to the US, if they could manage to survive that trip.
Judged by those standards, Clarke's presumed Magnificent Seven problems are actually more like the Seven Dwarfs.
One of them will have to be Snow White, though, because Clarke has already taken Dopey's role.
Jim Hoagland on Saddam's execution attitude:
Dictators die harder than most of us. Having wielded unlimited power in life, they seem to be sustained by a stubborn belief in their ability to stare down death, too. In his final moments yesterday, Saddam Hussein refused the offer of a hood to cover his eyes.
I would hope never to find out, but I'm pretty sure that I would, too. Contemplating the imminence of death would be difficult enough without being able to see what was happening. I can't imagine a hood being of any comfort but for the executioners. Nor would I die "with dignity" or cooperate in any way...you guys want to kill me then you are going to do it over my dead body, so to speak.
BAGHDAD -- As Iraqis awoke yesterday to television images of Saddam Hussein's neck twisted by a hangman's noose, Shi'ites cheered, Sunnis vowed revenge and at least 80 persons died from bombings and death squads -- not far from the daily average.
What the writer doesn't mention is that the number is, well, ah, below the daily average. But who wants to write "killings down after Saddam executed"?
James G. Zumwalt writes about listening to the right voice in Iraq:
With President Bush in receipt of his
Iraq Study Group (ISG) report card, two events -- one prior to its issuance
and one after -- should be noted that raise serious issues about the ISG's
assessment.
What could provide us with a more accurate assessment of the U.S.
situation in Iraq than a report by the insurgents -- one intended for their
internal consumption only? The first event involves just such a report,
found among al Qaeda documents captured earlier this year. Contrary to the
ISG report that states, "[for the U.S.] the situation in Iraq is grave and
deteriorating," the al Qaeda report gives U.S. forces more credit,
describing al Qaeda's situation in Iraq as "bleak." This assessment is based
on its losses suffered both militarily and in the fight to win the hearts
and minds of the people.
It stresses its operations have effectively been disrupted by a number
of U.S. successes including use of new tactics, massive arrest operations,
media initiatives that have effectively weakened support for the insurgency,
tightening financial assets to deny funding for terrorist activities, etc.
It notes U.S. forces are both numerous and resilient. From al Qaeda's own
perspective, the news in Iraq is not good. But the ISG, which also
criticized U.S. intelligence in Iraq, failed to even consider this report,
which has to be the most credible assessment of the U.S. situation in
theater.
Almost four decades earlier in the Vietnam War, the enemy's assessment
of its own situation was similarly bleak, especially after the Tet offensive
left its forces decimated. Yet we snatched defeat from the jaws of victory
by submitting to political pressures at home to pursue a policy focusing
more on getting out of Vietnam than moving us forward.
In failing to consider al Qaeda's report, ISG's assessment is lacking,
if not misleading.
...
More Muslims have been killed by
fellow Muslims than by Israelis. Thus, few problems of the Arab world
realistically are linked to Israel. Just look to Sudan, the Iran-Iraq war,
the massacres in Algeria, the invasion of Kuwait, the murder of thousands of
Syrians by Hafez Assad (father of the current Syrian leader) at El Hamma,
use of gas against Yemen by Egypt in the 1960s, the brutality of the Taliban
against the people of Afghanistan, etc.
The CIA is to report on a simulated exercise to determine how the Iraq
war will affect the global jihadist movement. That report will warn that a
U.S. defeat will embolden al Qaeda to expand its terrorist ranks and pick
new strategic targets in its global war effort. Clearly, any option short of
victory, while bringing short-term benefit, will bring long-term disaster.
In deciding whether to move forward in Iraq, we must listen to the right
voices to determine how the war is really going. Ironically, this may be one
of the rare times we should listen to the voice of al Qaeda.
Speaking of listening to the right voices, if you've heard Algore on inconvenient truths then you really should go to www.junkscience.com/greenhouse and read a very interesting technical-but-understandable article about greenhouse gases and global warming. While it deals to a large extent with only known temperature data from the last few centuries, there was this:
What caused the apparently massive temperature leap at the beginning of the 18th Century? It certainly wasn't industrialization, that hadn't happened yet. If such changes appear in the record during recent periods when people can not have caused them then they are by definition "natural" and, if such natural changes are evident in recent history, why are we so fixated on carbon dioxide as a "culprit" driving lesser warming now?
Finally, it is worth wondering why, with some three and one-half centuries of population growth, development and urbanization depicted in the Central England Temperature series, recent "chart-toppers" have managed to elevate top temperatures by a paltry 0.16 °C over those of the early 1730s. The vast majority of increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide has taken place over the seventy years since the Second World War and if CO2 were a significant driver of temperature change we would expect those years to be almost exclusively represented in the highest temperatures and yet fewer than half manage to make the warmest one-hundred list. The post hoc ergo propter hoc association of carbon dioxide is observed to increase, warmer temperatures are measured, therefore carbon dioxide warms the planet is a very poor basis for the current fixation.
What are the take-home messages:
The temperature effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide is logarithmic, not exponential.
The potential planetary warming from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide from pre-Industrial Revolution levels of ~280ppmv to 560ppmv (possible some time later this century - perhaps) is generally estimated at less than 1 °C.
The guesses of significantly larger warming are dependent on "feedback" (supplementary) mechanisms programmed into climate models. The existence of these "feedback" mechanisms is uncertain and the cumulative sign of which is unknown (they may add to warming from increased atmospheric carbon dioxide or, equally likely, might suppress it).
The total warming since measurements have been attempted is thought to be about 0.6 degrees Centigrade. At least half of the estimated temperature increment occurred before 1950, prior to significant change in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Assuming the unlikely case that all the natural drivers of planetary temperature change ceased to operate at the time of measured atmospheric change then a 30% increment in atmospheric carbon dioxide caused about one-third of one degree temperature increment since and thus provides empirical support for less than one degree increment due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. (EA)
There is no linear relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide change and global mean temperature or global mean temperature trend -- global mean temperature has both risen and fallen during the period atmospheric carbon dioxide has been rising.
Despite attempts to label atmospheric carbon dioxide a "pollutant" it is, in fact, an essential trace gas, the increasing abundance of which is a bonus for the bulk of the biosphere.
There is no reason to believe that slightly lower temperatures are somehow preferable to slightly higher temperatures - there is no known "optimal" nor any known means of knowingly and predictably adjusting some sort of planetary thermostat.
Put another way, Algore is barking up the wrong tree, and people who confidently tell you, like Clarke, what the world's "scientists" think about global warming, only reveal their own appalling ignorance.
Costa Rica break time
It's going to be a looooong evening. Tony has blown hot and cold today, he's excited by the fact that the neighbors are sitting outside and he's friends with the little girls. Carol is trying to figure whether another neighbor's invitation to drop by meant this early, or later, upset with Tony not behaving. It's only 6:30 but people have started on the fireworks already, so Poco is a quivering mass of Jello under my feet. He feels safest in what is ordinarily Trinket's private corner, so she's snarling at him for invading her space. Tony is outside jabbering away a mile a minute at anyone within listening distance, he's Bill-Bill II.
Only Sabrina and I are trying to remain above the confusion. 'Sabrina' is some kind of code word for 'serene' and 'brainless', she's an affectionate dog representing their blonde world. I don't know if you ever saw the old Gary Larson cartoon about "what dogs hear" which showed the guy talking to the dog in English and the dog hearing "blah blah blah Rex blah Rex blah blah blah blah Rex" but Sabrina can focus on my face the same way and you can almost hear the wheels turning in her head...he's saying something but I wonder what the heck it means?
We're kindred spirits, I guess. Five and a half more hours of this to endure, I'm afraid. I guess we might as well let Tony stay up until he drops. Me, too.
Luis worked today and will be back tomorrow, we're building a swing-set for Tony. I direct, he welds. We're using some of the left-over metal pipe and pieces from the construction phase. The job was mostly finished today, tomorrow he needs to do some finishing work and then we'll move it out into the yard, onto the grass. It should get painted, too, if the day is nice enough.
I suppose I should build him a sandbox with the left-over sand, it's just sitting there in a pile and I don't know when we'll use it again. Might as well build him a sandbox in the meantime. We have some left-over cinder-blocks to enclose it...maybe I'll make it 4'x8' and build his playhouse up above it? Carol is against the idea of going as high above the ground as I planned, but now that he has a swing set I don't need to go as high.
Thank goodness, a lull in the fireworks, I can think again...
Niall Ferguson in the Telegraph:
Only a minority of modern dictators have been executed for their crimes. The most bloodthirsty of all, Stalin and Mao, died in full possession of their powers, if not their faculties. Franco pulled off the same trick. Hitler cheated the hangman with a bullet in the bunker. Pol Pot lost power, but was never brought to justice and died in his bed, as did Idi Amin.
Slobodan Milosevic stood trial for his crimes, but died of a heart attack in March with 50 hours of testimony still to be heard. Augusto Pinochet, too, suffered the indignity of arrest; three weeks ago he also expired naturally before prosecution could even begin. Suharto is another fallen dictator who has avoided standing trial on the grounds of ill health. And let's not forget that dwindling band of dictators who are still alive and in power: Fidel Castro, Robert Mugabe and Muammar Gaddafi.
Dictators, by definition, have absolute power. For a dictator to end his life hanging from a rope, or facing a firing squad, therefore requires a rather rare combination of wickedness and stupidity: enough of the former to incur the hatred of his countrymen, enough of the latter to take on armies mightier than his own. Both these qualities Saddam Hussein possessed in abundance. That is why, in the wake of his execution at dawn yesterday morning, he deserves to be remembered as the Mussolini of Mesopotamia — if not the Ceausescu of Baghdad.
Enough dictators have gotten away with it that I guess the odds are on their side. Still, Saddam's execution has to have a couple of them thinking harder. Ferguson should try it for himself:
Saddam's second and ultimately fatal blunder was downright stupid. In George W Bush he faced an antagonist very different in temper from the elder President Bush; a leader persuaded by his advisers that Saddam's overthrow was desirable in three ways: as retaliation for the terrorist attacks of 9/11 (though Iraqi complicity was conspicuous by its absence); as pre-emption before Saddam acquired weapons of mass destruction (though the evidence for their existence was woefully thin); and as proof of the superiority of democracy over dictatorship (though history offered no evidence that democracy could be imposed at gunpoint in the Middle East).
Some invention, some truth, all malarkey. You can look at the record and you won't find any claim made that Saddam had a part in the 9/11 attack, only that he was a supporter of terrorists like those who participated in 9/11. For some odd reason, the jetliner fuselage the Iraqis practiced on in Salman Pak, in Iraq, didn't seem to count to liberals. Nevertheless, it cannot be argued that Saddam was not both a supporter of terrorists and an enemy of the United States...he was firing rockets at US planes every time he got the chance in open defiance of the cease-fire he signed. Amazingly, for liberals that was not considered provocation enough. Maybe if one of our pilots had managed to die that would have been better for them.
(Aside: I've always been wryly amused that if a guy shoots at you and dodge the bullet, or are wearing a protective vest, or he just plain misses due to incompetence, the charge is only attempted murder, a lesser charge than if he had succeeded in his original intent. Preventing your own murder is an assist to your would-be murderer when he gets to court. Liberal Logic.
Conservative Logic? Carry a gun while committing a crime, automatic jail sentence. Fire a gun while committing a crime and the charge is murder, no matter whether the criminal succeeded in committing it or not.)
Ferguson's second item is almost comic in tripping over it's tongue...the evidence for the existence of WMD was woefully thin, he says, while acknowledging that Bush's pre-emption theory was to eliminate Saddam BEFORE he acquired them. Duhhhhh.
Likewise, Bush never argued any superiority of democracy over dictatorship, he just pointed out that experience had shown democracies were less likely to engage in warfare against one another, so since the US was a democracy...well, you figure it out. As for imposing it with a gun, that's simply a ridiculous notion. The Taliban and al Qaeda both tried to PREVENT the Afghans and Iraqis from voting by threatening them with the barrel of a gun.
Once again, Ferguson is either oblivious to the fact, or thinks you are, that creating a democratic regime to follow Saddam was American foreign policy before George Bush appeared on the scene. It was policy under Clinton and would still have been policy if al-Gora had been elected instead of Bush. Bush did not come into office and invent it on the spot.
It demonstrates an incredible stupidity on Ferguson's part to think that any democracy, anywhere, has ever been imposed by gunpoint, whether in the Middle East or elsewhere in the world. Does he think his readers are fools? (Yes.)
President Bush yesterday described Saddam's execution as "an important milestone on Iraq's course to becoming a democracy that can govern, sustain, and defend itself, and be an ally in the War on Terror". Another way of regarding it is as just the latest of tens of thousands of acts of vengeance perpetrated by Iraqis against other Iraqis since the American invasion.
Truth in both statements.
Bush is clearly right, Iraq has been unable to go forward while Saddam lived. My goodness, kids, the events of the last several years have shown that to be the case, the country has obviously had a difficult time. Was that at least partly because Saddam was still alive and had a theoretical chance to come back to power? Hell, some Democrats were even trial-ballooning the idea! If I had been an Iraqi, and heard them, I'd be doubly wary of American duplicity, especially after Bush-the-father's record for getting them killed after he "defeated" Saddam, with Colin Powell's assistance. Simply defeating Saddam, the Iraqis have learned the hard way, is not good enough.
Will things get better now? We'll get a chance to find out now that Saddam is dead.
Was it an act of vengeance? Perhaps, probably, maybe. Is the court-ordered death of any murderer completely without feelings of vengeance? Besides, what's the moral argument here: that vengeance is never justified, even when the courts are used to extract it? Hmmm...sounds like you're almost preaching Christianity here...
But even Christopher Hitchens gets lost in his own beliefs:
Further, it's unclear what benefits his execution brings. I have heard of Shiite politicians who say that Hussein's death will help repress the Sunni insurgency by depriving it of a figurehead and rallying point and by destroying the chance of a Baathist restoration. This seems to me the most extreme foolishness and stupidity. There was no chance in any case of Hussein returning to power...
This simply was not true, not according to Saddam's history, at least. Several times Saddam had been believed to be overthrown, to be inches from death, only to miraculously come back into power again. Saddam lost a war against the whole world in 1991, and yet remained in power, killing tens of thousands of his enemies in punishment for their disloyalty to him.
Hitchens, in his arrogance, may believe that Saddam had no chance of regaining power, but the Iraqis had no similar arrogant self-assurance to fall back upon. Whenever Saddam rose up with an insane grin and shouted "I'm baaaaaack!" the Iraqis knew Hitchens would not be there to save them, any more than the first Bush was. Or the United Nations.
And, like I said, some prominent Democrats were even wondering aloud if Iraq might not be better off with Saddam.
Hitchens has simply turned his brain off on this one. Hitchens prefers to see the death of Hussein as some sort of cancellation of the past:
For many Iraqis, nothing could possibly begin to cancel the recent past except an act of exemplary vengeance. And — to argue against myself further — for many other Iraqis, there could be no security or peace of mind while Hussein continued to breathe.
But you see what he admits? Iraqis could not feel secure or have peace of mind without Saddam dead. And why would that be, except for the fear that he might, after all, somehow come back to power again. What other reason would there be for feeling insecure?
It would have been no offense to justice if Hussein had been sentenced to spend the rest of his days in prison without the possibility of parole, but it would represent a break with that sanguinary tradition. And it might be no bad thing if Americans, especially those who supported the breaking of his death grip on Iraqi society, found ways of conveying their distaste for this rushed and vindictive — and partial — version of a process of reckoning that ought to have been sober, meticulous and untainted.
Hitchens, you see, is certain that his vision of justice is the only proper and correct one. He's perfectly willing to tell the Iraqis how to run their government and their country, their courts and their lives. The British, after all, have a long heritage of teaching the wogs the proper way to live. (On the other hand, I have to grant him that for the most part they seemed to be right...)
For some reason Salena Zito's article wouldn't load completely, so I had to settle for this gem:
On Jan. 4, Capitol Hill, for all intents and purposes, becomes Nancy Pelosi's. Starting this week, she will be the face of the Democratic Party.
I cannot tell you how delighted that makes me.
Dave Barry works hard to write a funny column about 2006 and occasionally succeeds:
But the big story is the price of gasoline, which continues its relentless climb toward an unprecedented $3 a gallon. Responding quickly, Congress, in a rare display of decisive bipartisan action, takes a recess, with both sides promising to resume bickering the instant they get back.
. . . the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has a budget of over $3 billion, predicts that the 2006 hurricane season will be worse than usual. This item will seem funnier later in the year. In related news, the voters of New Orleans reelect Ray Nagin as mayor, proving that Hurricane Katrina killed far more brain cells than was previously believed.
In another hopeful development in Iraq, the Sunnis and the Shiites agree to try to come up with a simple way for Americans to remember which one is which.
Opponents of illegal Mexican immigration had cheered when Congress authorized the construction of a 700-mile fence. Their cheers quickly fade when they learn that, because of wording inserted at the last minute by Sens. Robert Byrd and Ted Stevens, 650 miles of the fence will be constructed in West Virginia and Alaska.
. . when Kerry's "joke" causes widespread outrage, prompting Kerry, with typical humility, to insist that it was obviously humorous and that anybody who disagrees is an idiot. Kerry is finally subdued by Democratic strategists armed with duct tape...
Nationwide, however, it eventually becomes clear that the Democrats have gained control of both houses of Congress. President Bush handles the defeat with surprisingly good humor, possibly because his staff has not told him about it. For their part, future House and Senate majority leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid issue a joint statement promising to "make every effort to find common ground with the president," adding, "We are clearly lying." Pelosi sets about the difficult task of trying to fill leadership posts with Democrats who have not been videotaped discussing bribes with federal undercover agents.
In other good news, with only a few days left in the virtually storm-free 2006 hurricane season and still no storms in sight, U.S. weather experts, citing new data, predict that the season will end up having been very mild. This forecast turns out to be right on the money, but the experts waste no time on self-congratulation, as they immediately begin making scientific predictions for next year's hurricane season, which, they warn, could be a bad one.
. . . gets off to a troubling start , with the worsening situation in Iraq worsening faster than ever. The nation's hopes for a solution are pinned on the Iraq Study Group, a presidentially appointed blue-ribbon panel consisting of five Republicans, five Democrats and the Wizard of Oz. In accordance with longstanding Washington tradition, the panel first formally leaks its report to the New York Times, then delivers it to the president, who turns it over to White House personnel specially trained in reading things.
I'm amused by the global warming people, who last year spun every storm as 'proof' that global warming was a fact sinister, but this year say that any one storm or any one year aren't important because single events do not matter. Remember, Algore's global warming film ends with an ice age caused by global warming. And some people think he makes sense.
I'm also amused by the people who complain Americans don't know the difference between Sunnis and Shia. They probably don't even know the latter word is both singular and plural, and if you asked them to tell you the difference between Baptists and...well, even from among the other Baptists, they'd be stumped.
Mark Steyn, funny as always while making a serious point:
Here's something else nobody's curious about: Sandy Berger. Consider this passage from the inspector general's official report on the Sandypants and his destruction of classified materials from the National Archives:
''Mr. Berger exited the Archives on to Pennsylvania Avenue, the north entrance. It was dark. He did not want to run the risk of bringing the documents back in the building risking the possibility [redacted] might notice something unusual. He headed towards a construction area on Ninth Street. Mr. Berger looked up and down the street, up into the windows of the Archives and the DOJ, and did not see anyone. He removed the documents from his pockets, folded the notes in a 'V' shape and inserted the documents in the center. He walked inside the construction fence and slid the documents under a trailer.''
Why is this man getting his security clearance back in 2008?
Because the Democrats are in office and what he did is not something they consider corruption?
Aw, who cares? The thousands of Americans who drive around with that ''9/11 WAS AN INSIDE JOB'' bumper sticker are positively blase when confronted with an actual verified documented instance of a former national security adviser carrying on like a Cold War double agent making a dead drop.
It's amazing how the Democrats overlook things like this when done by their own. Tom DeLay was vilified for far less than this, one of his major crimes being the taking of political donations given for one political purpose and transferring them to a similar but slightly different political purpose, without keeping any for himself in the process. Bad man.
I mentioned the old New Year's resolution up above, but in fact that's what I wouldn't mind seeing in 2007: a bit of resolution. There wasn't much in evidence last year. Take another little vignette that'll look good in the movie version:
Mustaf Jama, a Somali ''asylum seeker'' in Britain wanted for the murder of a policewoman, fled the country by taking his sister's passport, wearing a niqab (the full Islamic head-to-toe get-up that covers everything but the eyes) and passing unhindered through the checkpoints at Heathrow.
How about that? It turns out we are profiling after all, but we're profiling everybody except Muslims. Your wizened l'il ol' gran'ma on a Yuletide break to London is bent double and out of breath struggling to take off her coat and shoes. The officials sternly scrutinize her passport to check that the picture matches her flustered and bewildered face. All around her hundreds of women are doing the same, mutely shuffling through the scanner in their stocking feet. But Britain's most wanted man is breezing through because he took the precaution of dressing as a Muslim woman. And it would be culturally insensitive to expose them to the same scrutiny as your gran'ma.
Muslim terrorists have to be laughing their asses off at us. We simply aren't really, really serious about this war yet.
One difference between the Ethiopians in Somalia and the Americans in Iraq is that the former aren't fighting with one hand behind their back just in case some EU ally or humanitarian lobby group or fictitious Associated Press source leaks some "war crime" or other to the media. In fact, the Ethiopians have the advantage of more or less total lack of interest from the Western media. So they're just getting on with it. ... I don't know whether the Ethiopian intervention will work in the long run, but, if it does, the best hope for squashing the jihad might be to outsource the fight to Third World regimes less squeamish about waging it.
Right on.
Waiting for the New Year...will I watch it or not? Will I have a choice of going to sleep? Tony is in bed, despite the noise, but I'm sitting here listening to lout music and a sing-along group in the next block on karaoke...living on the 2nd floor does have some disadvantages, it seems...and they have TERRIBLE voices, really bad. Bad enough to make me laugh, actually. But if I want to go to sleep now that might be a problem...an hour and a half to go.
Also, what to do with the dogs if I go to bed. Fireworks going off here and there, haphazardly, no time or schedule evident just whenever the urge becomes too much to resist, all the dogs huddled underneath my feet. Literally. Hey, I like that, they're the pick of my litter! No, make that the pack of my litter.
My God but the guy singing now is bad! He sounds drunk, his friends sound drunk, but they're having a good time and not killing others, that's hard to complain about. No drunk drivers in our neighborhood tonight.
I just saw my typo, above..."lout music"...I'll keep it. It was unintentional, but appropriate.
I'm sitting here, mellowing out with my rum. Carol has mellowed out totally, she'll discover the New Year tomorrow unless I wake her.
When you relax your mind it does some funny things. I suddenly remembered Rea's and my first New Year's Eve. We wound up interrupting our party to rush one of her friends--I can almost say her name, it's on the tip of my tongue--to the hospital to have her baby. Was it the first baby of the new year? I don't remember that, so maybe not, but I remember watching the new year come in while I saw in my car in the dark parking lot, alone, while Rea was inside with her friend.
The event might have saved my life, as I had been drinking Gibsons like there was no tomorrow. I got so sick that I wasn't able to even smell a cocktail onion for dozens of years afterwards.
Those were the New Year's parties, back then, weren't they? Totally ripped. I don't miss them, but I remember some of them fondly.
This will be a good year to have behind me, but 2007 doesn't promise to be easy. Lots of hanging-on problems need to be resolved this year, cleaned up and gotten out of the way. From tonight's viewpoint I see it as a very challenging year for me to face up to dealing with successfully.. Somewhat oddly, I find that I am not overly dismayed by that prospect.
Must be the rum.
We have an excellent rum down here, made in Nicaragua. Called Flor de Caña. It doesn't taste like any rum you have ever tasted before. I prefer the 5-year-old as the one with the best flavor, even though they produce longer-aged varieties for more money. I cannot see that it gets any better after the 5th year, so why pay the price? From 4 to 5, though, there's a big difference.
My beverage of choice used to be E&J brandy, from California. Hard to find here and when I do find it, it is too expensive. I find that I am not all that fond of Spanish brandies, the local alternative. But I'm not all that fond of most rums, either, it turns out. I am very partial to high-priced Scotch and Irish single malts, but my budget is not.
Midnight is here. The world around me is exploding. The neighborhood is going nuts. Carol is sleeping soundly, as is Tony, the dogs are huddling around me seeking reassurance that all is well. The house is dark, except for my computer screen, but the sky is flashing lights in all directions.
On the floor I spot a strange and very tiny flashing light. I can't quite believe what I am seeing. Am I really that drunk?
No. It is a lightning bug, come to visit. Just one. And in my house, on the floor by my feet, where I would see him.
Right at the stroke of midnight! And I mean exactly, I was just accessing the official time site on the internet to set my computer clock when I saw the flashing light on the floor out of the corner of my eye. For a moment I wondered if I was hallucinating, or seeing reflections from the lights in the skies.
Truly amazing.
Even more so because he/she was the only one and he/she has disappeared now. No more flashing lights, the New Year instant has come and gone and midnight is now memory. I cannot find the creature again.
Go ahead, try and tell me this is all by accident.
Want more? Okay, here it is.
On our first trip to Costa Rica Carol and I had some very stressful experiences. Very.
At the end of one of the worst of them, a lightning bug landed on our windshield and started flashing at us.
We interpreted that to mean that the worst was over, all was well, keep on going. And it was.
I still think that was the message being sent to us back then, from out of the somewhere.
And my single, lone flasher tonight, down on the floor beneath my feet, amid the dogs...sending the same message. He kept on keeping on until I finally saw him and turned on my receiver. Keep on keeping on, he said.
There is my New Year's message, folks, if you needed one.
Happy New Year!